债务危机

摘抄

[1]作为全球宏观投资者，在努力应对经济和市场的变化时，我发现没什么比判断错误所带来的痛苦和判断正确所带来的喜悦更能为我们提供现实的经验和教训，这些经验和教训都是经济学教科书无法提供的。

[2]出于强烈的好奇心，也为了成功应对未来的危机…

笔记

一直以来都想真正地去投资到股市市场当中去，但是实际上并没有太多的精力去做产业调研。同时关于金融市场和我当前的主要任务并不契合，虽然从长久来说是绝对的有用的。还是应该思考一下怎么把这些纳入到我的系统当中去。

I mean, i think i found a property that a system may have. This metheds have three fundmental areas. The Mathematicial to some theory, the statistic about connect the areas, and some specifiy knowledge about some high-dimonsions.If we think about this book, the author tried to build a model about the debt. This model reflect two areas. One is human itself, anther one is about the society. The debt law is a statistic property which appeared in human. What methods they used is statistic. If we see the human, we could give some abstract property such as rational, and the financial phenonmenon is the statistic emergence of the rational.

So i think mathematical is the first one, then is the theory physical, then the statistic physical. If we use this methods, i believe we could find something new in the ai area.[2]

“底层是人性和情绪”、“跟命运是一样的规律”、“有些问题不是周期性问题，而是结构性的”、“人性导致了周期”。其实也能感觉出来，很多在更高维度上面的概念，其实可以根植于最原始的数学问题问题。结构性、人性、这些东西都右一些很有意思。